What will be true of OpenAI's new compute-intensive offerings? [Add Answers]
9
1.1kṀ775Dec 31
83%
At least one is available by the end of October
60%
One prompt can cost >$10 for a user
59%
Includes an upgraded computer use agent
39%
At least one makes >=2/3 of Manifold poll voters "very surprised" by its abilities
22%
One prompt can cost >$100 for a user
To count as part of this wave of "compute-intensive offerings", I will wait until the next obviously-power-hungry service comes out, and then start a metaphorical timer for about a month, which resets whenever a new obviously-power-hungry service comes out. When the timer hits 0, I will close the market. I won't be following this timer strictly, I will be resolving subjectively. So small delays would not make this market close, but large delays could.
I will use my best judgment here, but I want to do this subjectively.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI consume more than $250M of Microsoft compute in 2025?
86% chance
Will OpenAI spend at least $100B renting servers in 2028?
38% chance
What will be true of the gold-IMO-medal-winning internal OpenAI model? [Add Answers]
What product will OpenAI release next?
What will happen to OpenAI next year?
What will OpenAI do in 2025?
Will OpenAI increase the cost of its ChatGPT o1 Pro Subscription Plan this year?
19% chance
Will OpenAI have a new name by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
28% chance
Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months?
32% chance