Update 2026-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers that did not specify a deadline, the default resolution timeframe is market close (March 29), unless a common-sense reading of the answer clearly implies a longer timeframe is needed.
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This should resolve yes.
@HankyUSA This guy does not miss when it comes to political commentary.
that's US-centric.
see https://manifold.markets/MingCat/outcomes-of-trumps-strait-of-hormuz#q412l87pxt
@GammaLaser Breaking news: Trump, it turns out, is not a shining beacon of truth, consistency, or even coherency
confused on WTI Oil. Why has it resolved, but this market is still open? I'm sure I'm missing a comment here.
Was it (trading) market close on the 29th? Futures were trading above $100 on the 29th, Settlement price on the 27th was below, but description seems to imply price on the 29th for which there was active futures trading happening?
@ShaneBo check the comment thread between me and the answer author, there were two final trading ticks on that day before full closure, and both were below 100. At least, using the authors source that is the case
@Cactus @MingCat Looking at this, there is still some information I'm not following. WTI Futures do trade on sundays starting at 6 PM PST. The futures price was above $102 at end of day on the 29th. The settlement price was 99.64 on the 27th but at end of trading day(when futures stopped on the 27th)) the spot price as listed by WTI Midland and EIA-reported composite prices closing slightly higher at $101.26(5 PM EST is end of futures trading on Friday, you can find this on any WTI tracker) .
@Cactus this is the settlement price, but its not the final traded futures price on the 27th or the futures price when trading resumed on the 29th which is the stated end date in the resolution.
@ShaneBo The close date was moved forward by the market creator, fyi. It was originally on a day where trading was closed
Actually sorry, yes that was the 29th (or close to it). However the market closed prior to wti resuming trading
@MingCat @Cactus I see. I'd argue this was a mistake since futures trading did occur both past that settlement price and on the 29th, and market should not have been closed before the stated deadline. since settlement price was not explicitly outlined I believe a fair reading of the market intent would be use the final traded price before futures markets closed(3 hours past settlement price of 99.64) which was 101.26 on the 27th. though I think the accurate answer would be 103. 37 which was the price at 11:59 PM on the 29th.
@ShaneBo would have to disagree. The market clearly closed prior to futures reopening for trading. This is also the latest available price from the source which the answer author specified during resolution time, seems like a clear case to me. In other situations like this the source specified by the answer author goes, even if other sources show different values due to subtle differences in data tracking
But wasn't it chosen arbitrarily to close at that time because of the incorrect but reasonable assumption that trading did not open until monday, and on the choice of a settlement price not the trading price on the 27th. IF you use the source listed by the creator you can see the final trading price is 101.26(at session close) on friday. Settlement(99.64) is locked in 2.5 hours(apologies for incorrectly noting three hours earlier) prior to end of trading day.
@ShaneBo But agree this is all kinda arbitrary since there wasn't some more explicit resolution criteria.
@ShaneBo no we knew that trading did not reopen until Sunday, but this (manifold) market closed well in advance of wti futures reopening. All I know is that I asked the answer creator for a confirmation of the source for data and this is what he said, so I went with that
@Cactus This is the crux of my point: IF the creator lists the end date as Market Close(implied as commodities/equities markets close) why would this market close before hand? I'm suggesting this was a decision counter to the description because what had been an assumption I made that the creator was unaware that trading resumed on sunday so closed this market early.
if you go to the source the creator listed in the comment at investing.com the final trade was 101.26. If you look at the "WTI/USD" feed or the Commodity Summary Tables on the Investing.com sidebar, you will see $101.24 or 101.26. You can also see as listed in my screenshot the C(close price) listed at 101.18 on the 27th(the top of the candle) though if you look at the historical data and other sources you will see the final spot price during trading hours as 101.26. The listed settlement price, the 99.64 displayed in the image as the skinny horizontal bars differs from the actual last traded price(mathematically derived from a volume-weighted average earlier in the day. ) those two tiny horizontal marks represent the Bid/Ask Spread or the "Settlement vs. Last" discrepancy during the period when the market was closed. They are "flat" because no trading was happening to move them and they are representative of the settlement price. When zoomed out you might assume those are trade prices, but they are not. The 101.18(or more accurately 101.26) was the final trade price.
My argument(if we are taking the decision to close the manifold market as the final resolution time) is that given the creators comments and the open resolution criteria that the spirit of the market is the close price not the settlement price. I think we are agreed on that, but I just zoomed in on the chart more?
@ShaneBo chance Iโm misreading something, but fairly confident this is the correct chart interpretation
@ShaneBo based on my discussion with the answer creator, who is different from the author of this (manifold) market, the implication of our discussion was definitely that he meant the close of this manifold market, not the close of the futures market.
While the settlement price was used for resolution, as it was the last listed value from his provided source, the answer author also confirmed this basis of resolution and stated his answer resolves NO in a follow up comment. I think it would be a mistake to unresolve this and reresolve based on what you believe should have been a better resolution source. It may well be a better source, but it's not what the answer author stated.
This is why last friday I originally asked if it resolves YES. However the author later clarified his source and I asked him if he was going by the last listed value on investing.com, which happened to be the settlement price. he then gave follow up comment replies to me and @MingCat confirming this intent to use that value. So it should be clear that this resolves to No
@ShaneBo I also initially thought he was going to use the value you suggested, but that's why I asked and he clarified otherwise.
@Cactus I think I'm following what you're saying, and appreciate you responding. This is the fun of manifold. I think we can close this discussion as I agree it's probably not possible to change things now, but to summarize where I'm at.
The "close of the manifold market" decision still doesn't make fully sense to me in any circumstance. The description lists a close date of end of day March 29, but the part in question closed at 516 PM EST or about 7 hours before end of day. So whether it was meant at end of day or end of the trading market neither happened. It was just a random time. Additionally, Other questions remained open, and the final market close date was pushed back. Seems arbitrary to me and the only sense I could make of it was it was that the close happened because of the reasons I mentioned as if they opened up their source just 44 minutes later they would have seen 102.60 as the "current" futures price. but I agree maybe too late to go back on now.
The final listed value on investing.com prior to the closure is 101.18 per the screenshot and 101.26 per the historical trade data on investing.com on March 27. The 99.64 is the settlement price which lists on the chart as end of day price if you just look at a zoomed out view, but is not the last listed trade/value that they seem to be alluding too as the spirit of the market(expanded on with reference to comment below). Which is the final executed trade/tick/candle I highlighted in my screenshot. I get that this distinction can only be discovered if you dig into the details as a quick hover over the chart will give you the 99.64 price without making clear that this is the settlement. My feeling is that while as you say you initially suggested this trade price from a read of the comments it seems to me that the author/creator took the 99.64 as the last price and not the settlement which are two distinct things but they didn't internalize as distinct. You mention this as the" final tick " which I think was interpreted as final trade, when the way investing.com works is the final displayed value reverts to settlement price at the end of the day.
Their comment: "Meh. Wasn't aware of that. Thanks for pointing this out! So what I actually had in mind was "current price" which would probably be some futures or whatever. But had it been possible to write proper criteria, I'd have pointed to the site above, so that's what this should resolve to." Current price to me suggests the last traded price or continuous price which can be found on sites like marketwatch. When referencing investing.com both the current futures contract price (101.26) at time of comment and the last closed trade (101.18) were above $101 only the settlement price which is the weighted average for the day as of 230 PM on the 27th was lower per the resource they referenced. Further reinforced by futures opening on the 29th at $102.60. From reading the comments my takeaway is had the author/creator fully understood that futures were about to open on Sunday they would have stalled the resolution until the next day. I looked for clarification within their responses in this thread and it does not read as clear to me that this was understood. It seems clearer that they assumed futures prices were 7 days a week and were surprised that they weren't and that they took the listed settlement price as the final "current price" when I think a fair interpretation of "current price" which they stated as their intended resolution to be the last futures contract closed 101.26
TLDR: My read of the comments of the comments is the author/resolver/creator was unaware of or unable to write the distinctions between current//spot/settlement/futures price but roughly intended it to be the final futures contract price(per their comment), and seem from the comments unaware of the sunday open. You noted the final tick as 99.64 when the final executed trade was 101.26 which maybe created confusion. If you hover over the chart its very easy to assume that the 99.64 was the last trade. But using investing.com own historical data and cross referencing with other sources the last futures contract price/the last "current" price was higher than $100. This is why these commodities markets always need to be clear on settlement versus spot price or futures contract price. I've made this error on my own markets before.