In order for the market to resolve yes, at least 3 out of the following criteria should be met:

• At least 1 million people should protest across at least 3 important cities in US.

• The protests are lasting for longer than one week

• At least 3 important public officials are either getting fired or resign

• At least 3 reporters or media channels are censored (forces to resign/ close or fired due to political implications)

• At least 500 arrests during the protests that are related to the protests.

• General strike for multiple days in at least 1 working sector (public or private)

This market will close 6 months from now (March 31 2026, 23:59 CET)

Resolution criteria

• Timeframe: From market creation through March 31, 2026 at 23:59 CET. Resolves Yes if at least 3 of the 6 criteria below are met by a single U.S. protest wave centered on a specific political/economic/social issue; otherwise No.

• Measurement rules (apply to all items): Use the most conservative credible figures. Preferred sources are the Crowd Counting Consortium (CCC) dashboards/dataset for event counts, sizes and arrests; ACLED for event timing/spread; BLS for strikes; and major outlets of record (AP/Reuters) or official releases for resignations/disciplinary actions. If multiple credible sources disagree, use the lowest figure that still meets the threshold. CCC dashboards and methodology: CountingCrowds (and linked dashboards). (countingcrowds.org)

Criteria (need any 3):

1 Attendance: ≥1,000,000 total participants across protests in at least 3 “important cities” (defined below) during the wave. Verify via CCC crowd-size data and/or AP/Reuters. “Important cities” are the 15 most populous U.S. incorporated places as of July 1, 2024 per Census (NYC; Los Angeles; Chicago; Houston; Phoenix; Philadelphia; San Antonio; San Diego; Dallas; Jacksonville; Fort Worth; San Jose; Austin; Charlotte; Columbus). (census.gov)

2 Duration: The wave features protest events on ≥8 consecutive days in the U.S., as shown by CCC/ACLED or equivalent documentation. (countingcrowds.org)

3 Public-official exits: ≥3 public officials (federal Cabinet/agency heads; governors; or mayors of the “important cities”) publicly resign or are removed with credible, contemporaneous reporting attributing the action substantially to the protests/underlying issue. Verify via AP/Reuters and official statements (e.g., White House/State or governor sites). (whitehouse.gov)

4 Press censorship/retaliation: ≥3 U.S.-based journalists or news outlets are terminated, forced to resign/close, or face government-imposed suspension explicitly linked to coverage of the protests/underlying issue, documented by at least two reputable sources or by the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker/CPJ/RCFP. (Routine editorial decisions or unrelated layoffs don’t count.) (pressfreedomtracker.us)

5 Arrests: ≥500 protest-related arrests across the wave in the U.S., per summed counts from CCC (preferred) and/or official police/DOJ figures or AP/Reuters tallies. (Count unique arrests; exclude non-protest criminal sweeps.) (countingcrowds.org)

6 General/sector-wide strike: A multi-day (≥2 consecutive workdays) sector-wide strike in at least one state (public or private) explicitly tied to the protest issue, documented by unions/employers and major media; if available, corroborate as a BLS “major work stoppage.” (bls.gov)

Tiebreakers/edges:

• The “single wave” must be clearly identified by common demands/branding or consistent issue framing across coverage (e.g., a named campaign), not an aggregation of unrelated protests. CCC/ACLED tagging suffices to show linkage. (countingcrowds.org)

• If BLS annual data covering the period are not yet released by resolve time, use union/employer filings and AP/Reuters; do not delay resolution waiting for later BLS releases. (bls.gov)

Background

• CCC maintains the leading open dataset on U.S. protest sizes, locations, and arrests; its posts and dashboards provide per-event size estimates and arrest counts useful for verification. In 2023 CCC logged ~29,500 events and >9.1M total participants. (countingcrowds.org)

• ACLED systematically tracks U.S. demonstration events (since 2020) and is suitable for establishing daily continuity and geographic spread of a wave. (acleddata.com)

• BLS tracks “major work stoppages” (≥1,000 workers). Its releases provide authoritative confirmation of large strikes. (bls.gov)

Considerations

•Important cities” = top 30 most populous incorporated U.S. places as of July 1, 2024 Census estimates:
New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, Jacksonville, Fort Worth, San Jose, Austin, Charlotte, Columbus, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Nashville, Oklahoma City, El Paso, Washington DC, Boston, Portland (OR), Las Vegas, Detroit, Memphis, Louisville, Baltimore, Milwaukee.

(census.gov)

• Attendance estimation is noisy; this market uses the most conservative credible counts per city (e.g., CCC minima). (countingcrowds.org)

• Press-retaliation claims must clearly cite the protests/issue as a proximate cause (e.g., employer statement, government order, or consistent reporting), and should be verifiable via the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker/CPJ/RCFP. (pressfreedomtracker.us)