This question resolves as the answer to the following:

Will the US government centralize frontier AI development in a single government-sponsored project before the first year that the global economic growth rate exceeds 25%?

The criteria for "government-sponsored" is majority of funding and full executive control. For example, any participating or "nationalized" AI labs should not have a final say over important decisions.

"Centralized development" means that there are no private domestic firms competing with the project. There may be competing actors in other countries.

Note that the 25% growth rate need not be hit for this market to resolve. The first year that a single government-sponsored project is created to these specifications, if the global economic growth rate has not yet exceeded 25% this market resolves YES.

Here is an edge case that resolves YES:

• The USG centralizes development per these specifications in January of some year. Though the current economic growth rate is ~3%, the project is immediately highly successful and by December of that year the economic growth rate for that full year is found to be >25%. This resolves YES because I am interested in the order of these two events, rather than the order of release of statistics by global economic institutions.

I will not bet in this market and am only interested in correctly resolving it.