This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 17 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 17 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 17 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices
SMM samarium oxide Western premium data
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ23 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 2.17 USD/kg
Rationale: The skeptic raises a valid concern about the lack of direct CIF Rotterdam pricing data. However, the objection doesn't overcome the fundamental market reality: samarium oxide pricing at $2.17/kg in Northeast Asia makes it implausible that Western CIF Rotterdam prices would exceed $17/kg (nearly 8x higher) without any market commentary or disruption reports. While direct Western pricing would be ideal, the available evidence strongly indicates the threshold was not exceeded.
Voter outcome: NO (s
Sources read: