This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 17 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 17 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 17 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices
SMM samarium oxide Western premium data
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ19 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 2.18 USD/kg
Rationale: All available public and industry benchmarks for June 2026 show the spot price of Sm2O3 (samarium oxide) in the 2.1–2.3 USD/kg range, far below the 17 USD/kg threshold. There is no evidence from any consulted source (BusinessAnalytiq, ScrapMonster, Manifold Markets) that the Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeded or approached 17 USD/kg on or near June 30, 2026. The best available proxies (Northeast Asia, global indices) are accepted as reasonable equivalents given the lack of a direct CIF
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