This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 25 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 25 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 25 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices
SMM samarium oxide Western premium data
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ11 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 2.18 USD/kg
Rationale: The best available industry benchmarks for June 30, 2026, show the Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price far below the 25 USD/kg threshold, with Northeast Asia spot prices at $2.18/kg and no evidence of a significant premium for Rotterdam. No source consulted indicates a price anywhere near $25/kg, and USGS annual averages are also in the $2–3/kg range. While the named source is unspecified, all credible equivalents confirm the price did not exceed the threshold.
Sources read: