Will Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceed 17 USD/kg on March 31, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable samarium_oxide_western_price exceeds 17 USD/kg on March 31, 2027.

See measurable definition: measurables/samarium/samarium_oxide_western_price.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to March 31, 2027.

YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 17 USD/kg on March 31, 2027 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 17 USD/kg on March 31, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment

Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment

Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices

SMM samarium oxide Western premium data

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (1 traders, as of Apr 9, 2026).

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