This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 12 USD/kg on July 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to July 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 12 USD/kg on July 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 12 USD/kg on July 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices
SMM samarium oxide Western premium data
Update 2026-08-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is about to resolve the market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ13 | |
| 2 | Ṁ7 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 |
Proposed resolution: NO Verified: 2.17 USD/kg for 2026-07-31 — https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-sm2o3-western-cif-rotterdam-sp-AznRN6uLyO
Rationale: Deterministic: verified value 2.17 USD/kg for 2026-07-31 vs threshold 12 (exceeds)
Sources read: