This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 100 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot
SMM samarium metal Western assessment
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 9.77 USD/kg
Rationale: The contract asks whether the Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds $100/kg on June 30, 2026. While no direct 'Western spot price' is published, all authoritative sources (SMM, Northeast Asia index, and spot quotes) report prices between $9.64 and $10.35/kg for June 2026. Western spot pricing is typically referenced to these benchmarks, with no evidence of a price anywhere near the $100/kg threshold. Thus, the literal and reasonable interpretation of the criteria is not met.
Sources read: