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MANIFOLD
Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
Jul 31
52%
chance

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable samarium_metal_price exceeds 100 USD/kg on July 31, 2026.

See measurable definition: measurables/samarium/samarium_metal_price.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to July 31, 2026.

YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 100 USD/kg on July 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 100 USD/kg on July 31, 2026

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment

  2. Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices

  3. Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot

  4. SMM samarium metal Western assessment

Market context
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