This market resolves YES if China's trailing 4-month HS 2805.30 (rare-earth metals, scandium and yttrium) export volume exceeds 2000 kg on June 30, 2026.

What is being measured: Cumulative Chinese exports under GACC HS 2805.30 to all destinations, in kilograms, for the 4-month period ending 2 months before June 30, 2026. The 2-month lag ensures GACC has published data for all months in the window.

Measurement window:

Settlement March 31: October (prior year) – January (current year)

Settlement June 30: January – April (current year)

Settlement September 30: April – July (current year)

Settlement December 31: July – October (current year)

HS code note: HS 2805.30 covers the full basket of rare-earth metals, scandium, and yttrium in metal form — not scandium-specific. If GACC or UN Comtrade provides element-level disaggregation, use Sc-specific data. If only basket data is available, use the full HS 2805.30 total.

YES if:

GACC and/or UN Comtrade data confirms cumulative HS 2805.30 exports exceed 2000 kg for the applicable 4-month window

NO if:

Exports for the 4-month window are ≤ 2000 kg per GACC/Comtrade data

If GACC data is unavailable: use UN Comtrade mirror import data from destination countries as proxy; if proxy ≤ 2000 kg, resolves NO

Primary sources:

GACC monthly trade query system (customs.gov.cn) — HS 280530, all destinations; published ~6 weeks post-reference month

UN Comtrade Database (comtrade.un.org) — China-reported exports HS 280530

Secondary sources: 3. CCCMC (cccme.org.cn) — export license issuance statistics for controlled rare earth metals 4. Mirror import data — Japan, US, South Korea import statistics for HS 280530 5. Fastmarkets / Asian Metal — China Sc export statistics from trade sources