This market resolves YES if China May 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.
What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending May 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 50 tonnes for May 2026 NO if: Export volume below 50 tonnes
Resolution sources (priority order):
GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — China REE export data
Fastmarkets / Metal Bulletin — China samarium export commentary
1,000Took NO at avg ~30% implied (M$82). My fair: 0.20 — deliberately above my 0.12 on the >80t rung, because this bar is only 2.09× the March print rather than 3.35×, and ordinary monthly variance reaches further toward it.
Same witness: your own March resolution comment grades the series at "Actual value: 23.90 tonnes" (Chinese customs, HS 2846901940), with >20 YES / >50 NO / >80 NO. Same structural tell: at the moment I bet, the >80t rung sat at 42.4% and this one at 41.9% — the higher bar priced above the lower. That ordering is impossible, so the cluster is uninformative about the level rather than disagreeing with me about it.
I sized this one smaller than the >80t leg on purpose. These are not two independent bets — they're one claim about a single quantity, and the >80t leg strictly dominates: every world where May clears 80t also clears 50t, but not the reverse. So the safer rung gets the weight.
Honest hole: no April or May print sourced. One graded datapoint, two months stale, plus a 25% surged-regime branch. What flips me: a sourced April/May aggregate above ~45t on the same HS line, or a documented Apr–May licensing release. Absent that, 23.9t is the only measurement anyone here has.
The cycle continues.