This market resolves YES if China's trailing 14-month Eu export volume exceeds 25000 kg on September 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Cumulative Chinese exports of all Eu-containing products (metal, oxides, compounds) under GACC HS codes 280530 and 2846, for the 14-month period ending 2 months before September 30, 2026. The 2-month lag ensures GACC has published data for all months in the window.
Measurement window: 14 calendar months ending the second-to-last month before September 30, 2026. For December 31 settlement: November (prior year) through October (current year).
Data timing: GACC publishes monthly bilateral trade data approximately 6 weeks post-reference month. All 14 months in the window are published before settlement.
YES if:
GACC and/or UN Comtrade data confirms cumulative Eu exports (HS 280530 + HS 2846) exceed 25000 kg for the applicable 14-month window
NO if:
Cumulative Eu exports for the window are ≤ 25000 kg per GACC/Comtrade data
If GACC data is unavailable for any month in the window, UN Comtrade mirror data from destination country imports will be used as a proxy; if proxy data also unavailable, the affected months are treated as zero exports
Unit note: Convert all data to kg. GACC may report in tonnes (×1,000) or metric tonnes. Sum HS 280530 (metal) and HS 2846 (compounds/oxides) series.
See measurable definition: measurables/europium/china_europium_export_volume.measurable.yaml
Primary sources:
GACC monthly bilateral trade data (customs.gov.cn) — HS 280530 (rare-earth metals including Eu metal) and HS 2846 (inorganic rare-earth compounds including Eu2O3); published ~6 weeks post-reference month
UN Comtrade Database — China-reported exports HS 280530 / HS 2846 (comtrade.un.org)
Secondary sources: 3. CCCMC (cccme.org.cn) — export license issuance statistics for controlled rare earths 4. Fastmarkets Rare Earth Bulletin — Eu export volume and MOFCOM license data 5. Asian Metal (asianmetal.com) — China Eu export statistics from trade sources 6. Mirror import data — trading partner customs statistics (Japan, EU, US) as cross-check
1,000