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MANIFOLD
Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2030
48%
chance

This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2030.

YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026–2030 NO if: No manufacturer reaches 1 GW annual threshold by Dec 31, 2030. Research modules, pilots, or indoor PV without bankable warranties do not count.

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. NREL / IEA photovoltaic deployment tracking

  2. LONGi, Oxford PV commercial shipment announcements

  3. BloombergNEF perovskite commercialization tracker

  4. PV Tech / PV Magazine annual technology deployment reports

Market context
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