This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2028.
YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW of commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (with bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026, 2027, or 2028 NO if: No manufacturer reaches the 1 GW annual shipment threshold by Dec 31, 2028. Research modules, BIPV pilot projects, or indoor PV products without bankable warranties do not count.
Resolution sources (priority order):
NREL / IEA photovoltaic power systems deployment tracking
LONGi, Oxford PV, Saule Technologies commercial shipment announcements
BloombergNEF perovskite commercialization tracker
PV Tech / PV Magazine annual technology deployment reports
1,000