Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket's total trading volume for March 2026 exceeds $3.4 billion, as measured by publicly available data from Dune Analytics or official Polymarket reporting. The resolution will use the same methodology for volume calculation that Polymarket and data providers have consistently applied. If data sources conflict, the creator will determine resolution based on the most reliable available source.

Background

Polymarket's monthly trading volume rebounded to a record-breaking $30.2 billion in October 2025, though this represents a significant spike. The platform's cumulative trading volume surpassed $9 billion in 2024, with a monthly all-time high of $2.63 billion in November. From February to August 2025, monthly trading volume hovered around or below $1 billion, before the recent surge. Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token and related airdrops, which may have driven the surge in platform activity.

Considerations

Nearly 25% of Polymarket's volume over the past three years appeared to be wash trading, with wash trading volume peaking at 60% of the platform's total trading volume in December 2024. This artificial activity may inflate reported volume figures, making the $3.4 billion threshold potentially easier or harder to reach depending on wash trading prevalence in March 2026.