Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket records over $4 billion in trading volume during June 2026. Resolution will be determined using publicly available data from Dune Analytics or Polymarket's official blockchain records. The market resolves NO if monthly volume falls at or below $4 billion for June 2026.

Background

Polymarket's cumulative trading volume surpassed $9 billion in 2024, with a monthly all-time high of $2.63 billion in November. In October 2025, the platform achieved record highs with over 477,000 active traders and surpassed $3 billion in trading volume. Polymarket's monthly volume grew at a rate of 66.5% throughout 2024. However, trading volume has stabilized around $1 billion, down from its election-season peak of $2.6 billion as of mid-2025. The CFTC gave Polymarket the "green light" to operate prediction markets for American users after the company acquired CFTC-licensed QCEX, which could significantly expand the user base.

Considerations

Nearly 25% of Polymarket's volume over the past three years appeared to be wash trading, which may inflate reported figures. Additionally, December 2024 experienced a 34% decline in monthly trading volume compared to November, largely due to the conclusion of Polymarket's largest-ever event, the U.S. election, suggesting volume is highly event-dependent. June 2026 lacks a major scheduled political or sporting event comparable to the 2024 election, making the $4B threshold challenging to reach without sustained organic growth or unexpected major events.