Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket's total trading volume in June 2026 exceeds $6 billion. Resolution will be determined using official Polymarket volume data from sources such as Dune Analytics or The Block's Polymarket volume tracking dashboard. The market resolves NO if June 2026 volume is $6 billion or below.

Background

Polymarket has recorded over $7.74 billion in volumes so far in 2025, with November 2024 peaking at over $2.5 billion in volumes. The platform maintained momentum throughout January 2025 with $1.2 billion in volumes and has continued to average above $1 billion in monthly volumes since then. In October 2025, Polymarket registered a $3 billion trading volume executed by 338,000 unique traders.

However, a Columbia University study found that Polymarket's volume has been significantly inflated by wash trading, with artificial trading accounting for an average of 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the past three years.

Considerations

Trading volume dropped by 84% after the 2024 U.S. election, with the majority of trading activity stemming from bets related to the election. June 2026 lacks a comparable major catalyst event, which could impact whether the platform sustains elevated trading volumes. Additionally, some weeks saw over 90% of trades in election and sports markets flagged as suspicious, suggesting volume metrics may not reflect genuine market activity.