Resolution criteria

Polymarket's October 2025 volume marked the first time the platform surpassed $3 billion in a month, establishing a clear precedent for measuring monthly volume. Resolution will be determined by official Polymarket trading volume data for December 2025, verified through The Block's Polymarket monthly volume tracker or equivalent authoritative sources tracking on-chain trading activity. The market resolves YES if December 2025 monthly trading volume exceeds $3 billion; NO if it does not.

Background

Polymarket's monthly all-time high was $2.63 billion in November 2024, during the U.S. presidential election. December 2024 trading volume reached $1.7 billion, showing significant post-election decline. Polymarket maintained momentum throughout January 2025 with $1.2 billion in volumes and has continued to average above $1 billion in monthly volumes. October 2025 reached over $3 billion in monthly trading volume, representing a 110% increase compared to September's $1.427 billion.

Considerations

Wash trading volume on Polymarket peaked at 60% of the platform's total trading volume in December 2024, and the volume of fake trades has remained an ongoing issue through October 2025. Reported volume figures may include significant wash trading activity, though this does not affect how the market will be resolved—resolution will use reported gross volume regardless of authenticity.