The EIA will issue an Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) in the Spring of 2026. This market concerns the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) forecast U.S. market share for new passenger vehicles in 2026.
We expect this projection for 2026 BEV share will be in the "Transportation" section.
If there is no explicit 2026 BEV market share projection, we may fall back to an clearly implied forecast 2026 market share at discretion (for example if absolute sales are projected).
In the unlikely event there is no clearly implied forecast we may fall back to asking grok "based on your reading of this report, what is your best estimate of the authors' estimate of U.S. market share for new passenger vehicles in 2026?".
The market will resolve to N/A if, contrary to expectation, no forecast for 2026 market share of BEV is provided.
The market will resolve to N/A if no report is issued by the end of April 2026.
Resolution criteria
Resolve to the EIA AEO 2026 Reference case projection for the share (%) of new U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales that are battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in calendar year 2026.
Primary source: AEO 2026 Transportation data/tables (e.g., “Light-duty vehicle sales by technology, share of sales — Reference case”). Check the AEO 2026 landing page and Data Browser. Links: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ and https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/
If an explicit 2026 BEV share (%) is not listed, compute: 2026 BEV new LDV sales ÷ 2026 total new LDV sales, from AEO 2026 Reference case, then express as a percentage. If multiple BEV series exist, use the series labeled “battery electric” (exclude hybrids and plug-in hybrids).
Use the first official AEO 2026 publication (including any errata posted by April 30, 2026). If multiple tables show minor discrepancies due to rounding, use the Data Browser value; otherwise round to the nearest 0.01 percentage point.
Edge cases:
If AEO 2026 is not published by April 30, 2026, resolve N/A.
If AEO 2026 lacks both an explicit BEV share and the underlying 2026 new-sales counts needed to compute it, resolve N/A.
If EIA’s definitions change, apply EIA’s own BEV definition for 2026 and document the table/series used upon resolution.
Background
The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and provides Reference and alternative cases for energy markets, including light-duty vehicle technology shares in new sales.
EIA classifies BEVs separately from plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and conventional hybrids. AEO’s LDV category covers passenger cars and light trucks (SUVs/pickups), which aligns with “new passenger vehicles” for this market.
AEO transportation tables and the AEO Data Browser typically report both shares and absolute new sales by powertrain, enabling verification or calculation of BEV share for a specific year.
Considerations
Scenario selection matters: only the Reference case counts; alternative cases (e.g., High/Low Oil Price or Technology) are ignored.
Distinguish sales share (flow in 2026) from stock share (vehicles on the road). This market resolves on 2026 new-sales share, not fleet stock.
Family of related markets on manifold
ICE - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ice-market-sh
HEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-hev-market-sh
BEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ev-market-sha
PHEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-phev-market-s
Other prediction markets related to EVs
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28100/us-electric-vehicle-sales-share-35-in-2030/: US EV sales share exceed 35% in 2030
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14778/zev-share-of-global-light-vehicle-sales/: Global ZEV share by year (2025/2030/2035)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14732/zev-share-of-us-light-duty-vehicle-sales/: US ZEV share by year (2025/2030)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14762/zev-share-of-ca-light-duty-vehicle-sales/: California ZEV share by year (2025/2030)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14746/level-2-or-greater-public-charging-stations/: US level-2+ public charging stations by year
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15478/conditional-on-gas-prices-what-will-be-the-percent-of-light-vehicles-sold-in-the-united-states-in-2030-which-are-zero-emission-vehicles/: Conditional US EV adoption in 2030
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4292-how-many-new-electric-vehicles-evs-will-be-sold-in-the-us-in-2025-according-to-kelley-blue-book: US new EVs sold in 2025 (KBB)
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4293-how-many-new-electric-vehicles-evs-will-be-sold-in-the-us-in-2027-according-to-kelley-blue-book: US new EVs sold in 2027 (KBB)
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4286-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-domestically-in-china-in-2025: China new NEVs sold in 2025 (CAAM)
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxevshare: Global/US EV market share in 2030
1,000Suggested range probabilities as of Aug 21 2025
0–6.99%: 1%
7.0–8.99%: 9%
9.0–10.59%: 35%
10.6–12.89%: 45% ← primary bucket
12.9–100%: 10%
(Implied EV ~10.9–11.1% expected, depending on what you assume as the representative value in the top bucket.)
Why this forecast (briefly)
Observed 2025 baseline: U.S. PEV share is hovering ~10% this year. Argonne’s monthly tracker shows 9.85% PEV for July 2025 (BEV ≈ 84% of PEV that month). That’s consistent with a BEV share around the high‑7% to low‑9% range in 2025, depending on the source and month.
From your table, July 2025 U.S. PEV share is 11.0% with 130,270 BEVs out of ~1.40M total LDV sales ⇒ ~9.3% BEV in that month (back‑of‑envelope).EIA methodology & posture: In the AEO, the Reference case is conservative and grounded in laws/regs in force at the model freeze; pending/uncertain changes are excluded. That tends to damp near‑term swings and produces gradual ramps. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Near‑term market dynamics: EIA’s own “Today in Energy” notes that BEV share has been relatively flat in recent quarters while HEVs have gained. That supports an increment from ~2025 BEV levels to ~~11% in 2026, rather than a leap to the mid‑teens.
Trading note: I’d be overweight the 10.6–12.89% bracket, keep substantial 9–10.59% exposure as downside cover, and a small tail in 12.9%+ to hedge upside if incentives, pricing, or model availability surprise to the high side.
Quick sanity checks derived from your table (optional context)
U.S. July 2025 BEV share (implied): 130,270 BEVs ÷ (154,407 PEVs / 11.0%) ≈ 9.3% BEV of total LDV.
U.S. YTD (7M25) BEV share (implied): 742,371 ÷ (940,553 / 9.9%) ≈ 7.8% BEV of total LDV.
These figures are compatible with a cautious EIA step‑up to ~11% for 2026.