“According to Argonne ANL, will U.S. BEV sales exceed 87,000 units in December 2025?”

Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if Argonne National Laboratory’s “Light-Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates” reports U.S. battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales for December 2025 strictly greater than 87,000 units; resolve NO if the reported BEV sales are 87,000 or fewer. We use Argonne’s BEV figure (new light-duty vehicles, excludes PHEV/FCEV) for the calendar month of December 2025. (anl.gov)

• Source for resolution: Argonne’s monthly updates page (and its associated data/graphs). If Argonne revises the December 2025 BEV number, the market will use the latest value available by March 31, 2026; later revisions ignored. (anl.gov)

Background

• Argonne’s monthly updates are the U.S. reference used by DOE; they report BEV and PHEV sales by month and note they rely on Wards Auto data since Oct 2019. (anl.gov)

• Recent context: In June 2025, Argonne reported 93,717 BEVs sold (PEV total 113,433). December often runs higher than midyear months. (anl.gov)

• For comparison, December 2023 saw 100,928 BEVs (out of 141,055 PEVs) per Argonne-reported figures. November 2024 registered 117,929 BEVs, illustrating late-year peaks. (econbrowser.com, driveelectric.gov)

Considerations

• Seasonality and incentives can shift demand into December (e.g., tax-credit timing, year-end promotions), often boosting that month relative to others. (anl.gov)

• Argonne occasionally issues revisions; this market explicitly accepts revisions posted by 2026-03-31. (anl.gov)

• Argonne’s BEV metric covers new light-duty U.S. sales (cars and light trucks) and excludes PHEVs; traders should not mix in broader “EV” figures that include PHEVs. (anl.gov)

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