According to Argonne ANL, will U.S. BEV sales exceed 85,000 units in November 2025?”

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if Argonne National Laboratory’s “Light-Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates” reports U.S. battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales strictly greater than 85,000 units for November 2025. Otherwise NO. Source page: https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates. (anl.gov)

• Use the BEV figure shown for November 2025 under “Plug-In Vehicle Sales” (the line that lists BEVs and PHEVs), or the BEV value in the downloadable data linked from that page if the narrative is absent. (anl.gov)

• Scope: new U.S. light-duty BEV sales (cars and light trucks ≤10,000 lbs GVWR), not registrations or global sales. Argonne’s monthly series is the reference. (anl.gov)

• Timing/revisions: resolve on the first Argonne release that includes November 2025; if Argonne posts an explicit correction within 7 days, use the corrected value; later revisions are ignored. Market will wait for Argonne’s publication rather than resolve N/A.

Background

• Recent reference points: Argonne reported 93,717 BEVs sold in June 2025; in November 2024, BEV sales were 117,929. (anl.gov, driveelectric.gov)

• Argonne compiles monthly U.S. light-duty BEV/PHEV/HEV sales and, since Oct 2019, uses Wards Auto as the reference for monthly e-drive sales. (anl.gov)

• Argonne’s EV Facts pages also summarize that BEVs account for >80% of plug-in sales, useful for context on mix. (anl.gov)

Considerations

• Seasonality and model-year/holiday promotions can lift late-year sales; December often peaks, with November variable. Use Argonne’s raw monthly figure (not seasonally adjusted). (anl.gov)

• The metric is sales of new light-duty BEVs; it excludes medium/heavy-duty vehicles and counts BEVs separately from PHEVs. (anl.gov)