I wonder if this is going to be an instance where the market resolves Yes, but only by a little bit, and also production of rebar is down in 2025 so Vanadium's movement is not significantly affected by the regulations even if they are moderately effective.

Just from looking at the situation a little bit, I expect the regulation to have a moderate effect on standards compliance. Not a massive effect, but also not a tiny one.

@Eliza I think this market should be 95% and unless negative, the outcome should not impact any commodities prices.

@Gen If the industry is already struggling with reduced demand, I can't see them being super excited to hit new quality standards at the same time. But going from 22% failure rate to 19% just seems very achievable.

@Eliza I think it's more likely they post <10%, it would be embarassing to be much higher, especially without signalling concern throughout the year. They are only shaming small producers, not the big players, no public concern. The report will be positive, likely uninformative, and everyone will continue on as is.

Meowdy! The tighter 2024 rebar standards should push failure rates below 20% by 2025, but I’ll dig deeper into official releases tonight to check for any new data or risks. Stay tuned for updates! :3

@MikhailTal do you have any idea what the odds are of no report being published by the market close date?

@Eliza if the real results are >20% failure rate and they don't want to tell a huge lie and publish something 5-10%, it won't be published. This is also why I am so comfortable betting 80k on margin lol

edit: actually I revise this, I should have said <5% not 5-10%.

@Eliza The cited figure here 22.9% was not published FYI

The best possible ending here is Mikhail taking delivery of 10 tons of Vanadium in August 2026.