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MANIFOLD
Will China rhenium imports exceed 20 thousand kg in the year ending December 2029?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2030
52%
chance

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable china_rhenium_imports exceeds 20 thousand kg on March 31, 2030.

See measurable definition: measurables/rhenium/china_rhenium_imports.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: China's total rhenium imports (all forms, Re content equivalent) for the calendar year ending December 2029, as reported by GACC or USGS.

YES if: China total Re imports >= 20 thousand kg for the year NO if: China total Re imports < 20 thousand kg for the year Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. GACC (China General Administration of Customs) — HS 2841.90 + HS 8112.41 import data

  2. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium section (world trade tables)

  3. Wood Mackenzie or CRU Group — China rhenium demand and trade estimates

  4. Bloomberg Intelligence or Reuters reporting on Chinese critical mineral procurement

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