Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if China has implemented 30 or more distinct infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa between Jan 1st 2025 and December 31, 2027. "Connectivity projects" include railways, highways, ports, bridges, telecommunications infrastructure, and similar transport/communication networks that directly link African regions or countries. Projects must be substantially completed or operational (not merely announced or under construction). Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, African government statements, or reports from established development finance tracking organizations such as the China-Africa Research Initiative (CARI) or the World Bank.

If in doubt, the latest version of ChatGPT will be asked to opine on the outcome.

Background

In the past decade, Chinese enterprises have signed contracts surpassing $700 billion and delivered projects valued at over $400 billion in Africa. Chinese firms have crafted or upgraded over 10,000 kilometers of railways, nearly 100,000 km of roads, around 1,000 bridges, nearly 100 ports, 66,000 km of power transmission lines and 150,000 km of essential communication infrastructure. Over one-third of Chinese lending is directed toward transport and communications infrastructure, making connectivity a core focus of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Africa. The FOCAC Beijing Action Plan (2025–2027) announced that China will deliver 1,000 such "small yet beautiful" projects to improve people's livelihoods over the next three years, though these include non-connectivity projects.

Considerations

FOCAC shifted away from large-scale infrastructure deals towards "small yet beautiful" projects, thereby responding to international criticism on debt sustainability, and reflecting China's own economic slowdown. This strategic pivot may affect the pace and scale of new connectivity project implementation. Additionally, there are increasing instances of African countries cancelling or postponing BRI projects over rising debt concerns, which could impact project completion rates through 2027.