Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) gains full control of Bhamo by 11:59 PM local time on September 8, 2025. "Full control" is defined as the KIA occupying all significant military installations and administrative centers within Bhamo, with no remaining resistance from Myanmar's military forces. Verification will be based on credible reports from reputable news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, and The Irrawaddy.

Background

Bhamo, located in Kachin State near the Chinese border, has been a strategic stronghold for Myanmar's military. Since December 2024, the KIA, along with allied forces, has been engaged in an offensive to capture Bhamo. By June 2025, the KIA controlled approximately two-thirds of the city, with ongoing clashes near key military positions, including Military Operations Command 21 (MOC-21). (eng.mizzima.com) The conflict has led to significant civilian displacement and infrastructure damage.

Considerations

The battle for Bhamo has broader implications, including potential impacts on the global supply of heavy rare earths, as the region is a significant producer of these minerals. China has expressed concerns over the conflict's effect on rare earth exports and has reportedly pressured the KIA to halt its offensive. (reuters.com) Additionally, the Myanmar military has utilized airstrikes and drone attacks to defend its positions, complicating the KIA's efforts to gain full control. (english.dvb.no)