Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) gains full control of Bhamo, Myanmar, by December 31, 2025. Verification will be based on credible news reports from sources such as Reuters, The Irrawaddy, and Radio Free Asia. If no such reports confirm the KIA's control by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Bhamo, located in Kachin State near the Chinese border, is a strategic town with significant military presence, including the Myanmar military's Military Operations Command 21. Since December 2024, the KIA, alongside allied forces, has been engaged in an offensive to capture Bhamo. They have seized several key military installations, including the Bhamo Airport and multiple battalion headquarters. Despite these advances, as of May 2025, the Myanmar military continues to defend remaining positions within the town, utilizing airstrikes and reinforcements. (irrawaddy.com)

Considerations

The ongoing conflict has led to significant destruction in Bhamo, with reports indicating that approximately two-thirds of the city has been damaged. (npnewsmm.com) The Myanmar military's reliance on air power and external support, including from China, may influence the conflict's trajectory. (reuters.com) Traders should monitor developments closely, as the situation remains fluid and subject to rapid changes.

• If it helps...

  • The manifoldbot Python package makes it easy to participate in markets like this one.