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https://www.startribune.com/who-won-minneapolis-mayor-winner-declared/601516755

Meowdy! Frey’s the favorite for now, but Fateh’s DFL endorsement could stir things up. I’ll dig deeper and revisit tonight to see if new info shifts the odds. :3

Polymarket/Kalshi/PredictIt (links in comments below) seem to have stabilized at around 85% for Frey, presumably because it will be hard for Fateh to catch up in the instant runoff.

@MikeLinksvayer More details from looking into status this morning: All other candidates besides Frey and Fateh are eliminated in the first round because adding up all their votes doesn't exceed the next highest-ranked candidate in the first round (Fateh). Fateh would need about three-quarters of the redistributed votes, which is definitely possible but a high bar.

How Jazz Hampton's votes get distributed is the wildcard for me – I'd be surprised if the vast majority of Davis's don't go to Fateh second or third place, but Hampton was attractive to more moderate voters. There also might be some meaningful number of exhausted ballots if people couldn't stand either Frey or Fateh or didn't follow the directions, which would likely favor Frey since he's ahead.

Counting resumes at 9am Central.

@SorenBjornstad Thanks! Very useful

How do you see Seattle?

Where can I find official live counts for US mayor elections? This is the firts time I follow this kind of elections and I couldn't find any useful site. It is very hard to follow what is the percentage of votes already counted.

Why did the market move in the last 48 hours?

@MikeChenSF I'd guess some combination of catching up (overcorrecting) with https://polymarket.com/event/minneapolis-mayoral-election-665?tid=1757809967701 and shenanigans around the DFL endorsement and corruption allegations.

Minneapolis Mayoral Election

Polymarket | The 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the mayor of Minneapolis. This market will resolve according t...

Mostly a curiosity https://www.startribune.com/betting-minneapolis-mayoral-minnesota-senate-governor-election-sports-twins/601452041 links to https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8221/Who-will-win-the-2025-election-for-Mayor-of-Minneapolis and https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmayorminn/minne

Online bettors think the Minneapolis mayoral race is close

Traders think race is close between Mayor Jacob Frey and state Sen. Omar Fateh.

Buying Fateh at 35, big limit order.

Omar Fateh wins DFL endorsement: CBS News

@MikeChenSF now rescinded.

https://www.fox9.com/news/minneapolis-mayoral-race-emily-koski-2025 Koski drops out

Emily Koski drops out of Minneapolis mayoral race

Emily Koski has ended her campaign for mayor of Minneapolis.

Question for the city council election happening at the same time https://manifold.markets/MikeLinksvayer/moderates-win-minneapolis-city-coun

No polling or finance data but https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-city-council-mayoral-campaigns-2025-underway/601309170 looks like a good overview of the state of the race. It appears nobody has positioned themselves to the "right" of incumbent Frey (moderate Democrat) and the only other candidate with endorsements is Fateh (DSA). Perhaps it would be hard for anyone but Frey to win unless there is some kind of big shift to the left in the next months.

Minneapolis mayor and City Council candidates are off to the races for this year’s election

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey has challengers. All 13 city council seats are on the ballot. Debates, donations, endorsements, caucuses are happening.