Will the next President of the United States die in office?
Will the next President of the United States die in office?
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19%
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The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in office?
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There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:
https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i
On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
bought Ṁ100 NO10mo
Does it count if the president has health problems, goes to the hospital for an extended period of time, is replaced by their VP, and then dies before the end of the term?
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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