Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]

MANIFOLD

177

Ṁ2kṀ30k

2030

15%

chance

ALL

The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in an office?

This resolves yes if they die in an office.

Dictionary definition:

a room, set of rooms, or building used as a place for commercial, professional, or bureaucratic work.

US Politics

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 2% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 2%. Trump has roughly a 10–19% chance of dying before the market closes. Modern presidents almost never die in an office, and a collapse at work usually ends in a hospital, which the creator says doesn't count. The 14.7% market price looks like pun-misreading.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

bought Ṁ50 YES

Election is over. Will Trump die in an office??

Odds are a bit lower now that Biden is out

Feeling duped!

NA this tbh

bought Ṁ50 NO

i believe it is standard English to say "in an office".

This is an intentionally deceptive market title designed to mislead people into thinking that they’re betting on whether the next President will die while still President.

I thought this sort of thing was discouraged in the new Manifold?

@SimonGrayson Everyone get on the ground, it's the fun police!

Headline: The former president dies in bed after long term illness, having recently turned his bedroom into an office to work until the very end.

@GazDownright he can claim his bedroom is an office but that doesn't make it an office. I listed my definition in description. Stop spamming same question please

@TimothyBandors It's the journalist's claim. Pun market needs phun comments. Stop being so serious about your pun market please.

@GazDownright I was only being defensive because I thought you were trying to throw a wrench into the funny. Carry on

@TimothyBandors Okay, I'll take some of the blame 🙏

What if the president is working from home or remotely? The president could die in the bath tub, or at the airport lounge, while workkng and having made this his or her office.

@GazDownright nope. Has to be an office. Working in a pool does not make the pool an office. I'm going with the noun definition.

@TimothyBandors Language is descriptive, not normative, the meaning of the noun is changing 😘

CAREFUL! I misread this as first as “die in office,” but this market is a pun. If Joe Biden is reelected and dies on an airport runway on June 6, 2026, then this market will resolve false. If Biden survives until Jan 2029 but dies in his office in his New Jersey house, this market resolves true.