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MANIFOLD
How many seats will Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition gain in Argentina's 2025 elections to the Chamber of Deputies?
13
Ṁ3kṀ6.7k
resolved Dec 13
Resolved
YES
51-55 seats
Resolved
NO
56-60 seats
Resolved
NO
60-65 seats
Resolved
NO
66-70 seats
Resolved
NO
71-75 seats
Resolved
NO
≥ 76 seats
Resolved
NO
46-50 seats
Resolved
NO
41-45 seats
Resolved
NO
36-40 seats
Resolved
NO
31-35 seats
Resolved
NO
26-30 seats
Resolved
NO
≤ 25 seats

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Hi everyone. Argentina's system for assigning seats is a bit more different and complicated than I thought it would be. For the purposes of resolving this market I used the net gain number most commonly reported (which is 64 gross wins -10 seats re-elected = 54). This is without counting deputies who switched parties after the election. However, to be fair to all of you traders in my market, I must concede that I did not do the best job at clarifying my resolution criteria. If you lost money in this market due to a misunderstanding and believe that you have a decent argument for why another number in which you made a bet should've resolved to YES, then send me a DM briefly articulating your case and I will make you a refund and perhaps a send some more depending on the strength of your argument. Thanks for betting in my market.