What will the Hamas Disarmament Agreement Document Include? (Set)

500Ṁ137

2026

81%

The word “Trump” anywhere in the document

66%

Destruction of tunnel networks and weapons-production facilities

66%

A clear timeline for Hamas disarmament

66%

A mechanism to penalize Hamas non-compliance

59%

An internationally funded weapons buy-back and reintegration program

59%

A clear timeline for IDF withdrawal

59%

The word “amnesty”

59%

Handover of Hamas authority to a committee of Palestinians under international oversight

59%

A condition requiring approval by the Israeli government before the agreement takes effect

59%

The word “peace”

50%

Handover of weapons to a third country outside Palestine

50%

A list of countries responsible for monitoring implementation

48%

The word “state”

48%

The word “hostage”

41%

Handover of weapons to the Palestinian Authority or another Palestinian organization

41%

Signatures of other militias or armed groups in addition to Hamas

41%

An apology and/or expression of regret

41%

The word “Trump” in the title

41%

A mechanism to penalize Israeli non-compliance

41%

An offer to integrate former Hamas members into civilian institutions or a future police or army

Market Goal

To forecast the scope and explicit content of any forthcoming Hamas Disarmament Agreement in the context of the ongoing peace negotiations.

Resolution criteria

If no formal disarmament agreement is published by the closure date, all options resolve N/A.
Once a document is officially published, each option resolves YES only if the concept is explicitly written in the signed text.
References appearing only in press releases, interviews, or public statements do not count.
If the concept appears only in a later phase (Phase n) of negotiations, but not in the first disarmament document, it resolves NO.

Closure policy

The closure date will be extended as long as negotiations remain active.
If negotiations are officially declared derailed, the market will close 10 weeks later.
If talks resume within those 10 weeks, the closure will be extended again.
If not, the market will close and resolve as N/A.

Resolution policy

The market will resolve only after the full text of the disarmament agreement is publicly released.
It will not resolve based on secondary or unofficial reports.

Creator participation