Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy. This Wikipedia page has a list of previous North Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2026 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia. If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
The last ten years had the following activity:
Below normal: 2015
Near normal: 2022
Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023
Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
1,000People are also trading
Downbetting again a below normal season:
Currently at 49.8 ACE, and Gabrielle should bring 5-15 more ACE (hard to tell when it will become post-tropical/extra-tropical) with some very rough estimates (mixing NHC/HCCA/Google).
93L and 94L each both have roughly at least a 90% chance of becoming a TS each (based on FSU's chances of a TC (which will likely become a TS with the high SSTs), and the Google 23/06Z run (which essentially all of its members show a TS in the next 7-8 days).
I get ~14 ACE and 9 ACE respectively from the mean from google's tracks.
So, estimating the expected ACE from these 3 systems (taking the most conservative Gabrielle ACE value of 5):
5 + 0.9*13.7 + 0.9*8.7 = 25.16 ACE is the amount of expected ACE I would expect from these 3 systems.
This should takes us above a below normal season.
@SaviorofPlant Good report. Most surprising was the low vertical wind shear anomaly:
"Current 30-day-averaged zonal vertical wind shear is the 2nd lowest on record across the western Atlantic (10–20°N, 85– 50°W) (Figure 22)."
CPC has also issued their forecast today.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php