Subjective (obviously).

This market resolves YES if the United States experiences a "meltdown" in November, 2026.

There are two ways this market can resolve YES: the Special Way (joint political + tech turbulence) or the Typical Way (single catastrophic event)

1. THE SPECIAL WAY (Political AND Tech Turbulence)

Resolves YES if at least one qualifying Political Turbulence event AND at least one qualifying Technology Turbulence event occur during November 2026.

Examples of Political Turbulence:

- The Insurrection Act is formally invoked or martial law is declared.

- A sitting federal or elected representative is deported or detained for deportation.

- A Jan 6-style physical breach of the US Capitol, the White House, or a state capitol halts official government or election proceedings.

Examples of Technology / Market Turbulence:

- Anthropic fails to complete its IPO in November 2026 (e.g., withdraws its S-1, officially postpones its listing past November, or pulls the offering due to market conditions).

- The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) enters a bear market (drops at least 20% from its all-time high on an intraday or closing basis).

- A major cyberattack disables critical US infrastructure, a major financial exchange, or a hyperscale cloud provider for at least 24 hours.

2. THE TYPICAL WAY (Catastrophic Tail Risk)

Resolves YES if a historic catastrophe hits the US in November 2026.

- Examples: A nuclear weapon detonates on US soil, verifiable extraterrestrial contact, major terrorist attack on US soil

I will not trade the market. I will update throughout the month about how close we are to the criteria above.