GPT-4-Turbo will be behind the best model by at least 100 Arena Elo points on 4/30/24 on the Huggingface Chatbot Board
5
75
150
resolved Apr 30
Resolved
NO

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

Currently (1/16/24) it is in first by over 50 points.

Note that if GPT-4-Turbo is beaten by a successor to GPT-4 (e.g., GPT-5), this resolves to YES.

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

So you expect:

1- a better model will come out

2- it will as much better by the difference between claude-1 and gpt4 (huge difference)

Quite a stretch I would say. Hence buying NO.

@ftkurt It's a bet, I have no expectation.

Note that Gemini counts as a competitor and it is already (sort of) out.

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