Are @jack or @Catnee secretly on @IsaacKing's team in Whales vs. Minnows?
19
330Ṁ4725
resolved Apr 25
Resolved
YES

A lot of major whales, like Jack and Catnee, have been conspicuously absent from the Whales vs. Minnows market. If they were on Isaac's team, there would be every reason to hold them in reserve instead of having them buy shares immediately. If Isaac looks to be alone, YES shares will stay lower.

If either user (including alt accounts) holds >200,000 YES shares at any point, I will resolve this YES. If that precise condition never happens but the fact becomes widely acknowledged, I will resolve YES.

Even though there's some flexibility in the resolution criteria, be warned that I WILL be trading in this market myself.

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Not exactly what I had in mind: I didn't expect either to end up holding 200,000 shares just in the regular course of events...but that was the main listed criterion, so resolving YES.

predictedNO

@MichaelWheatley Hmm, yeah, this doesn't really match the title.

@IsaacKing Yeah, I did not fully grasp how the WvM market would play out when I wrote the criteria. Could also have resolved NA, I suppose?

@MichaelWheatley, did you change the criteria from 100k to 200k shares for Catnee or Jack? Catnee currently haw 75k shares and based on the speed at which they acquired those shares, switching from NO to YES, that seems to me to be strong evidence (maybe not strong enough?) that they are on Isaac's team

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch What would be the benefit to me in having them switch?

predictedYES

@IsaacKing at a basic level, the whale team needs 10000x as many total shares as the minnows have holders, excluding alts. If catnee buys yes shares, that is less for you to need to buy

@MarcusAbramovitch i am too small to make a difference

@MarcusAbramovitch I haven't made any edits to the description is that's the question.

predictedYES

@MichaelWheatley I recall it being 100k shares. If you scroll down in the comment section, you also say 100k shares

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch Internet Archive has 200k on April 16

@MarcusAbramovitch R.I.P. Me
That was just a mistake on my part in the comment replying to you. Let me know if you'd like your position refunded aster being misled by that.

predictedYES

@MichaelWheatley I don't need a refund

predictedYES

@MichaelWheatley it is much more valuable to blame my poor trading on I'll defined markets

predictedYES

@Mira Yea, i could definitely be mis-remembering. I also know that Michael's discretion is at play here.

Jack and Catnee together don't have enough mana to team up and win on the Whales side.

Also, Catnee is not absent.

Seems like the sort of market a teammate of myself might create in order to draw suspicion away from themselves... 🤔

I would switch the criteria to "at any point" rather than at market close. I expect them to sell out if they realize they will lose to preserve mana

I know there is a scenario where they get there via market making or on a low probability event that Isaac will win this and they can get cheap shares.

predictedYES

@MarcusAbramovitch That's what I was trying to say with "by market close" instead of "on market close", but yeah, It could stand to be a lot clearer, I'll make an edit.

predictedYES

@MarcusAbramovitch Yeah, for the record., if Isaac surrenders and they buy 100,000 YES shares at 0.1% I won't count that. But I figured with the random closing time the market is unlikely to ever have the chance to collapse in price.

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