
For the purpose of resolving the bet, by 2040 or earlier there should be at least one piece of land on Earth where governance is entirely decentralized, lacking any form of traditional government control for at least a year or more, including the following:
Absence of a centralized state apparatus that claims a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. There should be no single dominant governing body or institution that imposes laws, regulations, taxes, etc. on the population.
Widespread reliance on voluntary contractual agreements and private arbitration for resolving disputes and providing services typically associated with government. This includes privatized police, courts, infrastructure, etc.
A competitive market for security and defense services without a single dominant provider. There cannot be a monopoly or oligopoly on legitimate force - citizens should be able to choose from multiple competing providers.
Resistance or immunity to control by external state powers. The society is able to maintain autonomy and resist coercion or cooptation by neighboring states.
Circumscription of the territorial boundaries within which the free society order prevails. This avoids ambiguities about partially failed states or transitional territories. Clear geographical limits are defined.
Duration of the stateless order. The anarcho-capitalist society must exhibit stability and persistence over time, not just temporary disorder or chaos. A minimum time period for existence of such society is a year or more.
Functioning system of private property rights and rule of law. There should be widely accepted foundational rules regarding property ownership that are upheld through decentralized legal mechanisms.
Widespread participation in economic and social life through voluntary exchange. Markets for goods, services, capital, labor, insurance etc. should exhibit relatively free entry/exit and minimal barriers imposed by force.
The bet will be resolved as "yes" if a book or published academic paper authored by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Norman Stephen Kinsella, David Graeber or another credible free society advocate:
Explicitly declares that a stateless free society has existed continuously for at least 1 year within clearly defined territorial boundaries.
Provides documented historical evidence for this society meeting the core characteristics of an anarcho-capitalist order.
Withstands substantive critique
Is corroborated by at least 2 other recognized experts in the field through independent analysis confirming the historical existence and anarcho-capitalist nature of this society.
Describes a society exhibiting stability, complexity and maturity consistent with an emergent anarcho-capitalist order, not just transient chaos or disorder.
Meets all other criteria for a credibly anarcho-capitalist society as elaborated in the initial response.