Trump’s first term shows that nobody except family can last long in his inner circle. Musk’s presence on election night shows that he has currently bought his way into that inner circle. When will they have a falling out? This is somewhat subjective, but I will use things like musk losing any official or unofficial roles in the administration as signifiers. If musk never has any such role, then I will use public reporting of musk visits to the White House or having calls with Trump ceasing for a prolonged period of time.
I seeded the answers with the next several months, feel free to add later months. I will not bet in this market since it is somewhat subjective.
Update 2024-20-12 (PST): The Never option will resolve as true if it hasn't happened by the end of Trump's political career (including post-presidency as long as he remains politically active), not just the end of his presidency. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on the first qualifying falling out.
Future reconciliations do not negate this initial event for resolution purposes.
The market is not judging a final or permanent separation.
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Between this story and the fact that he has stepped down, I would argue that either April or May must resolve yes
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/02/trump-musk-leaving-political-liability-00265784
@PaperBoy That seems likely, but I think it'd be good to leave the market open for a couple more months just in case Musk comes back into the inner circle
I understand your point here, but I feel that a strict interpretation of my conditions above would not include any possible future reconciliation. The purpose of the market was to judge when they would have a falling out, which could be the first of many, not to try to judge when they will finally and forever call it quits (which truly couldn’t be adjudicated until one of them is dead, and then only retrospectively)
I’m open to arguments against this interpretation though.
@ManifoldPolitics id like to temporarily close this market while a potential discussion over the terms occurs, can anyone tell me how to do this safely?
I don’t want to resolve. I tried opening see info in the menu, but that just gives me the option to remove the public listing?
@MichaelSinko no further discussion has occurred, the last few days of news seem to confirm that musk has left the inner circle. Will resolve to May 2025
@Nat let’s go with “Never” = by the end of Trump’s political career. So that could include post-presidency if he is still active in politics.