This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
A public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.
Speculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.
Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:
Any candidates ultimately get on the ballot.
The party succeeds in gaining ballot access.
1,000What if it never winds up on the ballot?
What if the filing is for something like incorporation or a school board or local race? What if it gets thrown out for failing to follow procedure?
The US is highly resistant to third parties and even earnest attempts at starting one get thrown out for a wide breadth of bullshit and not-so-bullshit reasons, so we need to be really clear about where the line is
@KJW_01294 This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces (or officially files via FEC) the formation of a new political party that is intended to run candidates in U.S. elections — regardless of whether any candidates ultimately get on the ballot or whether the party succeeds in gaining ballot access. Filings for non-party entities (e.g. PACs, corporations, school boards) do not count.