What will be the probability on "will trump win the 2024 election" at midnight pacific time on election night?
10
1kṀ3770resolved Nov 6
100%94%
95-100
0.7%
0-4.9
1.1%
5-9.9
1.0%
10-19.9
0.8%
20-79.9
1.0%
80-89.9
1.1%
90-94.9
I will check https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election at midnight pacific time on election night. I will use "sweepstakes" (real money) mode.
If the price appears to have been heavily manipulated around the stroke of midnight (ie if there's a sudden spike or trough) I reserve the right to use the price immediately before/after midnight.
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Similar market for the night before the election using the numerical distribution format which I didn't know existed and really should have used here https://manifold.markets/PatrickLV/what-probability-will-manifold-poli