TLDR: how likely is it that on the eve of the election, Manifold Politics will assign probability X% of a Republican (obviously Trump in almost all scenarios) winning the Presidency? How much uncertainty do you have? Reshape the distribution to match!

Details:

OK, this is a relatively nerdy market.

I'm curious about how confident Manifold is in its estimates of the presidential race. (For example, users who expect important news cycles ahead should have a flatter probability distribution, predicting that the race has a good chance of moving in either direction rather than staying still.)

There are some markets like this already (see the earliest comment), but I think Manifold's numeric question type makes for better incentives and more granular results!

This market will resolve to the median of the minute-by-minute values for the Republican Party in the Manifold Politics presidential market between 23:00 and 23:59, Eastern time, on November 4th. (That should be fairly resistant to wild swings.)

If Manifold crashes during that time, I will instead use the values from the last hour preceding the crash.

This market will close at noon on November 4th, to prevent it from becoming too much of a game of reflexes in the final hours.