Looks more and more like Russia is winning the war and the odds of this on Metaculus are 1%

At 4%, I am looking to de-risk

@MarcusAbramovitch more available at 5 :-)

FYI, there is also a November 30 question:

https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-744be0582327

Will Ukraine sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by November 30?

4% chance. Resolves YES if the following Metaculus question resolves before market close: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/

Why is this market starting to converge to a reasonable probability and I can no longer enjoy cheap NO?

@42irrationalist insane to me that this was ever over 10%

@NathanpmYoung I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :)

@TorBarstad im willing to sell some of my position at ~11% if you want to de-lever

@MarcusAbramovitch Maybe I should, but diversification is not my strength, and my current inclination is to let things ride. If my account ends up badly in the red, then so be it :)

@TorBarstad you sure you want to keep going down this road?

@MarcusAbramovitch From my own perspective, I tampered down a while ago, as I'm no longer making new orders in this market (although I still have buy-orders). And I'm also less aggressive elsewhere. But I did sell a small amount now.

If I won in this market I would have donated the "profits": https://manifold.markets/charity. If I don't (which seems more likely now), others may do with their profits as they wish.

I think firstuserhere (upon making a substantial bet in another market) said something along the lines of: "If I win in this market, then great. If I lose, then that will make me spend less time on Manifold, thus helping me be more productive. So win-win."

While I don't think he meant the "win-win" literally, I empathize with that kind of thinking, and I think it makes me more "reckless" and non-diversified than I otherwise would have been :)

Manifold for Charity

Donate your prediction market earnings to charity on Manifold.

How does this resolve if Ukraine manages to fully interdict the Russian Ground Lines of Communication via artillery before EOY? They might be closer to this than the headlines would have you believe.

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.

@alangrow Not sure if this helps, but this market will resolve as the linked Metaculus question does. From the resolution criteria:

“This question will resolve as Yes if the Institute for the Study of War or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, 00:00 EET.

For the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice.”

Interdicting the area by artillery does not count as control on the ISW maps

Looks like they might be able to make more progress soon https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-counteroffensive-pierces-main-russian-defensive-line-in-southeast-9441e204

WSJ News Exclusive | Ukrainian Counteroffensive Pierces Main Russian Defensive Line in Southeast

After three months of grinding advances in Western-backed operation, Kyiv accelerates thrust along main line of attack

@konstan What would we trust as a resolution source on cutting ground lines?

This should be something like 10-12% right now imo

@MarcusAbramovitch Why do you think so? /yaboi69/will-ukraine-be-promised-or-provide-edbc2f9d50cc is above 50 and there is no better use for atacms if ucraine gets some

@MarcusAbramovitch Well, if you feel like doing it, you have the funds to buy this market downwards :) Not saying you should or shouldn't though :)

@Odoacre They say the same about every big new weapon.

@Odoacre Ukraine has had Storm Shadow for the past 3 months. So how exactly will ATACMS allow the land bridge to be cut?

@Alevir7 Correct. ATACMs won't make a huge difference. Ukraine will hit some valuable targets with them, but they need thousands of them. They will be given dozens. Hitting a small number of ammo depos and command posts, and maybe a rail bridge or two won't have a material first order impact on the front line. The mines will still be there, and there will still be guys in trenches with guns. That said, every little bit counts.

@MarcusAbramovitch I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because platfrom risk, optorunity ocst etc.

@RealMoneyMarkets Insight Prediction is actually 6-11% by the end of next January. I think Poly is now around 6-7% by November.

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@BenQ This market ends soon. Insight has a Jan. 31st market, at 6-11%. https://insightprediction.com/m/243602/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-jan-31st-2024