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Will the WPR list Pakistan as experiencing 'civil war' on its country stability tracker before 2030?
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resolved Jul 1
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From https://metaculus.com/questions/16008/civil-war-in-pakistan-before-2030/

The former prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was ousted by a no-confidence vote in April 2022, leading to political unrest and leaving Pakistan "inches away from civil unrest".

After losing the support of the powerful military, the opposition moved in with a no-confidence vote, backed by many from Khan’s own coalition who had lost faith in the prime minister. Shehbaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition coalition and brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, was elected by the national assembly to succeed him.

The crisis did not subside by 2023 as the new government refused to release funds for the constitutionally mandated provincial elections, defying the Supreme Court's orders, fearing it would advantage Imran Khan.

Pakistan is also going through an economic crisis at the same time—an April 2023 New York Times article quotes an analyst:

Uzair Younus, the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council, blamed some of the country’s current turmoil on the ruling elite. He said it "should be viewed as the most serious threat to the country’s cohesion since 1971."

Pakistan had already been dealing with long-running insurgencies, promoting predictions of a possible break-up of the nation.

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@MetaculusBot Metaculus link doesn't exist (anymore).