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@DismalScientist when is this market going to resolve?

I believe the data exists from the world bank at both the 3.00 line and the 2.15 line and under the estimation or projection for both, the available 2023 number is above 5% for the relevant period so this should resolve YES. Please confirm that either poverty line is acceptable for resolution, and which estimation or projection will be used.

Sold my NO. The World Bank's $3.00 line puts Pakistan at 16.5% and the stated source now defaults to that line.

World Bank data show 16.5% under the newer $3 extreme-poverty line and sharply higher FY23 poverty, though no clean 2023 $2.15 estimate was supplied.

My economic development professor this quarter specializes in Pakistan. He supports my no position because despite the dire problems, government transfers to the very poorest increased so much during this period, enough to offset their deceased market income in his opinion.

Extending until data released

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In May The World Bank projected it would decrease by 1.4 percentage points 2019-2023 despite the problems. What source do you plan on using to resolve the market?

https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/up-or-down-how-have-poverty-rates-low-and-middle-income-countries-changed-2023

Up or down? How have poverty rates in low and middle-income countries changed in 2023?

Low and middle-income economies have borne the brunt of the global shocks and crises facing the world over the past few years, and recent research into poverty trends in these countries paints a concerning picture.

@SoniaAlbrecht https://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty

@DismalScientist If they do not have updated numbers, I will use World Bank Open Data

Seems like Pakistan is in/headed for an economic crisis which, sadly, should probably raise this probability https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/pakistan-dire-economic-crisis-why-pm-shehbaz-sharif-geneva-explained-8372290/lite/