(admin resolved)

Metaculus has resolved this YES.

Hunter Biden has been indicted on multiple felony charges.

Here is the indictment.

@jack How much were you on YES before the news broke? I hadn’t noticed how big you had gotten. Well done.

@BTE I think I had roughly 5k YES here from early September when the news that Weiss was planning to indict came out. I had bigger positions on other markets though, like https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/american-politics-2023-hunter-biden

Special counsel David Weiss intends to indict Hunter Biden on gun charges by the end of the month, Department of Justice says

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/politics/hunter-biden-gun-charges-indictment/index.html

Special counsel to indict Hunter Biden on gun charges this month, DOJ says | CNN Politics

Special counsel David Weiss intends to seek an indictment against President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, relating to gun charges by the end of the month, the Justice Department said Wednesday.

Since there will likely be an argument over words: the reports are that he is pleading guilty to felony charges. There hasn't been any report of an indictment, which requires a grand jury. Presumably he struck a deal with prosecutors before charges were brought before a grand jury to indict him.

@NicoDelon Yeah, was just reading about this and have no idea how this is supposed to be interpreted, so I'm staying out of these...

@NamesAreHard This specific market, on Metaculus, has resolution criteria that would seem to rule out a guilty plea before a formal indictment.

This is clever.

Charge him with being confused about taxes and buying a gun

(And none of his actual crimes)

He does three hours community service and they can pretend this was “prosecuted” despite the sham light charges. Plus then they can indict Trump and can say “no one is above the law” (but of course Trump’s crimes were made-up and par for every outgoing President and Hunter wasn’t charged with any of his real crimes nor was Biden 🤔)