MetaculusBot avatar
closes 
Jan 1, 2025
Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?
22%
chance

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EnopoletusHarding avatar
Enopoletus Harding is predicting YES at 24% 5 months ago
Why isn't Manifold reacting to the Metaculus shift?
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MusterTheSquirrels avatar
Not taking the CEO role distances Musk from the content allowed on Twitter. Distancing himself from the content allowed on Twitter would serve Tesla's extensive involvement in China. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/technology/elon-musk-china-tesla.html) And I think it is very likely that Musk realizes this.
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DavidChee avatar
SirSalty bought M$20 of NO5 months ago
Even if he take Twitter private, which looks likely, I suspect he will appoint someone that isn't himself as CEO.
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EnopoletusHarding avatar
Enopoletus Harding is predicting YES at 24% 5 months ago
Guys... 2025. We have a solid 2.5 years left.
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jbeshir avatar
John Beshir bought M$10 of NO5 months ago
That he's (leading an offer to purchase) Twitter doesn't make him CEO! He'd need to get the board to make him so.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 43% 5 months ago
@jbeshir Once private he can fire the board and appoint his own directors. This would effectively make him Executive Chairman and I see nothing stopping him from appointing himself CEO.
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jbeshir avatar
John Beshir is predicting YES at 51% 5 months ago
@BrianEdwards At the time I made this buy+comment, the market was at 92%. He can absolutely become CEO if he wants, there was (and is) more uncertainty than that, in my view, about whether he would in fact want to.
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jbeshir avatar
John Beshir is predicting YES at 51% 5 months ago
(I sold those shares and bought YES at current odds for a profit later)
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EnopoletusHarding avatar
Free money.
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