Given the ridiculous percentage skewed towards Yes, it’s probably safe to toss a few M$ at No. Elon Musk owning Twitter is different than him being appointed the CEO.

@clarence I accidentally bought Yes earlier but have a No position right now.

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@clarence Musk is officially CEO now. https://9to5mac.com/2022/10/27/elon-musk-twitter-ceo-fires-company-executives/

predicted YES

@SG Actually I think 9to5mac are probably jumping the gun slightly, I don't think it's officially confirmed yet, unless they have some sources that Bloomberg doesn't.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/musk-is-said-to-take-twitter-ceo-role-reverse-life-bans

Musk Is Said to Take Twitter CEO Role, Reverse Lifetime Bans
Musk plans on replacing ousted CEO Parag Agrawal for now
Musk intends to replace Parag Agrawal, who was fired along with other major executives upon completion of the takeover, a person familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing internal deliberations. The billionaire is expected to remain CEO in the interim but may eventually cede the role in the longer term, the person added. Twitter representatives declined to comment.

Note the hedging language "said to" "plans on" "intends to". Which indicates to me that he's CEO, but people are still awaiting some official confirmation.

predicted YES

@clarence That is incorrect. In a private company the majority owner is CEO by default. He would only need to announce if he gave the position to someone else. But I suspect he will formally take the title anyway.

bought Ṁ500 of YES

Deal just closed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/twitter-elon-musk/ "Elon Musk took control of Twitter late Thursday as his $44 billion deal to takeover the company closed." "CEO Parag Agrawal, chief financial officer Ned Segal, and Vijaya Gadde, head of legal policy, trust, and safety, were all fired"

It doesn't state whether Musk became CEO, but I assume that will become clear in the next couple days.

predicted YES

Why isn't Manifold reacting to the Metaculus shift?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Not taking the CEO role distances Musk from the content allowed on Twitter. Distancing himself from the content allowed on Twitter would serve Tesla's extensive involvement in China. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/technology/elon-musk-china-tesla.html) And I think it is very likely that Musk realizes this.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Even if he take Twitter private, which looks likely, I suspect he will appoint someone that isn't himself as CEO.

predicted YES

Guys... 2025. We have a solid 2.5 years left.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

That he's (leading an offer to purchase) Twitter doesn't make him CEO! He'd need to get the board to make him so.

predicted YES

@jbeshir Once private he can fire the board and appoint his own directors. This would effectively make him Executive Chairman and I see nothing stopping him from appointing himself CEO.

predicted YES

@BrianEdwards At the time I made this buy+comment, the market was at 92%. He can absolutely become CEO if he wants, there was (and is) more uncertainty than that, in my view, about whether he would in fact want to.

predicted YES

(I sold those shares and bought YES at current odds for a profit later)