How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
6
160Ṁ1512027
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023?
69% chance
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
27% chance
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
45% chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
50% chance
Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?
79% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
42% chance
In 2024, creation of IQ PRS score calculator for https://diyhpl.us/wiki/genetic-modifications like OakVar for longevity?
50% chance
Will average IQ in developed countries drop 15 points or more by EOY 2098?
5% chance