Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
Plus
0
2035
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently hereditarians tend to cite family-based statistical genetics studies as support of the high heritability of of intelligence whereas opponents cite GWAS that find low heritability.
Resolves yes if leading hereditarian intellectuals (Like Emil Kierkegaard, Cremieux, etc) largely start citing GWAS as support for their arguments, resolves no otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
45% chance
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
55% chance
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
41% chance
If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?
9.5
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
27% chance
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
37% chance
Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?
37% chance
Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?
39% chance
Will evolutionary psychology be adopted into mainstream psychology education by 2050?
77% chance