Background
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations who have made outstanding contributions to promoting peace. Donald Trump has been nominated for the 2025 prize by multiple individuals, including Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko and U.S. Representative Claudia Tenney. However, nominations alone do not indicate likelihood of winning - the Committee typically receives hundreds of nominations each year.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The announcement is typically made in early October 2025, with the award ceremony held in December 2025. The market will resolve to NO if:
Someone else wins the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
The prize is shared between multiple recipients but Trump is not among them
No prize is awarded for 2025
Considerations
Being nominated does not significantly impact chances of winning - hundreds of people are nominated each year
The Norwegian Nobel Committee's selection process is confidential and independent of the nomination process
The Committee tends to favor ongoing peace efforts and recent achievements rather than past accomplishments
No U.S. president has won the Nobel Peace Prize while in office since Woodrow Wilson in 1919, though former president Barack Obama won it in 2009 during his first year as president
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Trump says first phase of Gaza peace deal agreed, paving way for hostage and prisoner releases
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx2nzlj2j4kt
I'll buy some yes just in case. BBC:
They have become very vocal about it, especially the families of the hostages - organising rallies, issuing press releases, urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take this chance to bring their loved ones home.
They have even today sent an urgent letter to the committee of the Nobel Peace Prize urging them to give a prize to President Trump for what he’s been doing. The prize winner will be announced at the end of the week.
@MaybeNotDepends you can absolutely do that.
Click bet No, then choose Limit & set your custom time👍🏼
@AlanTennant There is an argument that Trump stopped a few different wars this year.
If he's able to get a ceasefire in either Ukraine or Gaza, I think he'd even deserve the peace prize. But those also seem pretty unlikely to happen soon.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Importantly "their not fighting, or not fighting as much, or fighting in a less visible more gorilla way" is not the same as "Trump caused peace", and also Trump is quite cozy with Russia and other despotic regimes.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Even if he’s involved in a ceasefire his economic policy and contribution to globally increased nationalism/protection is disqualifying. But I’m still surprised this market hasn’t risen with the recent ceasefire deal, kind of expect it to soon
@TimothyJohnson5c16 it's happening, the first stage of the peace deal was signed between Israel and Gaza. I still think this is unlikely but the odds should shoot up a little bit
If he does, will it be because he succeeds at getting peace in Ukraine?
I could comment, but I won't.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-nominates-trump-nobel-peace-prize-2025-07-07/